April 13, 2025
Itinbox®
On March 13, Alphamin Resources announced the suspension of mining operations at its Bisie tin mine in Walikale Territory, North Kivu province, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The company’s board made the “difficult decision” following the westward advance of armed rebel groups, who seized Nvabiondo—capital of Osso-Banyungu, about 110 km northwest of Goma—on March 9, and advanced a further 13 km to Kashebere by March 12. With employee and contractor safety no longer guaranteed, the company has evacuated all mining personnel except for essential staff.
The news sent shockwaves through the domestic tin ingot market, as concerns over tightened supply drove a sharp price surge. Several other factors are also contributing to global tin supply constraints: delays in the resumption of mining operations in Wa State, Myanmar, which were originally slated for April but are now expected to ramp up no earlier than June; Nigeria’s crackdown on illegal mining is projected to reduce output by 15%; Southeast Asia continues to face pressure from a 15% export tax and environmental restrictions; and Indonesian refined tin exports have fallen 8% year-on-year. These developments are driving up tin ingot prices and, in turn, inflating costs for downstream users in China.
Tinplate Sector Faces Rising Costs Amid Tight Tin Supply
Tin accounts for approximately 12% of tinplate production costs in China, with usage expected to maintain an annual growth rate of 2–4% in traditional applications such as food and beverage packaging. According to long-term tracking by Mysteel, China’s tinplate producers consume roughly 12% of the country’s apparent tin ingot demand. As more tinplate production lines come online, demand is expected to rise steadily. Mysteel data shows that 26 monitored tinplate producers achieved a total output of 5.20 million tons in 2024, up 10.03% year-on-year. Apparent tinplate consumption reached 3.49 million tons, a modest 0.94% increase, with growth mostly attributed to export volumes.
For 2025, nine new tin/tin-chrome plating lines with a combined capacity of 1.85 million tons are set to launch in the first half of the year. An additional 10 approved but unbuilt projects are expected to add 2.2 million tons of capacity.
Tin Ingot Costs Now Account for Up to 18% of Tinplate Production
In 2024, average tinplate production costs stood at RMB 5,680/ton, with tin ingot costs averaging RMB 911/ton, based on a standard tin coating of 5.6 grams (2.8g per side). This translates to tin accounting for roughly 16% of total production costs. As of February, costs had risen slightly, with average tinplate production costs at RMB 5,482/ton and tin ingot costs climbing to RMB 956.31/ton—representing 17.44% of total costs.
In March, tin prices surged from RMB 256,000/ton to RMB 288,500/ton—an increase of nearly 13%. As a result, the tin cost per ton of tinplate jumped from RMB 941.15 to RMB 1,060.63, a rise of RMB 120, or 12.75%. Mysteel analysts note that due to constrained tin ore supply, domestic tin ingot prices are likely to remain in the RMB 280,000–300,000/ton range for an extended period.
Profit Margins Under Pressure as Tinplate Prices Fail to Rise
Despite the rising input costs, tinplate producers report that prices have not followed suit—and in some cases, have declined. As of early April, northern private-sector tinplate prices were in the RMB 5,550–5,650/ton range, while southern producers quoted RMB 4,650–4,750/ton. March gross margins are expected to shrink further. Some producers revealed that although mid-March saw a jump in tin ingot prices, prior procurement at stable prices has so far cushioned the blow. However, if prices remain elevated, April could bring significant cost pressure.
Overcapacity and Weak Demand Curb Tinplate Price Increases
Producers’ ability to pass on costs to downstream can manufacturers remains limited. China’s tinplate capacity continues to expand, with further growth expected in 2025. Overcapacity has intensified market competition, with some producers cutting prices to secure market share. The industry remains fragmented, with state-owned, private, and joint-venture players all competing—limiting overall bargaining power.
Meanwhile, key application areas such as food and beverage packaging are showing slower growth. Aluminum can substitution continues to erode demand for traditional three-piece cans. Trade barriers like anti-dumping measures and tariffs have also weakened export performance. On top of this, raw material support is weakening, and overall industry profitability is under pressure, with the price of base substrates (hot-rolled C-grade steel) lingering at low levels. In some cases, extended production cycles are making cost control even harder.
Outlook: Cost Pressures Mount, Margins Squeezed
In summary, the sharp rise in tin ingot prices is set to place increasing cost pressure on domestic tinplate producers. Some companies may attempt to raise futures guidance prices to offset costs, but in the worst-case scenario, gross margins will continue to erode. This could lead to production cuts as a way to minimize losses.
